Matrixport: Weaker US Macroeconomic Data Could Trigger Market Volatility, Challenging Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum
In Brief
Matrixport’s recent analysis warns that weakening US macroeconomic data and emerging market risks may lead to increased uncertainty and consolidation in cryptocurrency markets, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Cryptocurrency financial services provider, Matrixport released a recent market analysis indicating that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is diminishing amid emerging weaknesses in the US macroeconomic environment. Although two major economic indicators have reached their lowest levels in months, much of investor attention remains on exchange-traded fund flows. However, underlying factors such as funding conditions, stablecoin activity, and forward-looking metrics suggest a bigger shift might be occurring. This could signal the beginning of a summer consolidation phase or potentially a more serious market adjustment, with early warning signs present but not yet fully reflected in market prices.
The analysis notes that after maintaining a bullish outlook for the past two months, traders were advised to secure profits in the latest report. Signs of consolidation have since appeared, with Bitcoin declining by 3%, Ethereum by 4%, and Solana by 11%, confirming a change in market momentum. Looking ahead, the possibility of increased uncertainty arises as US macroeconomic data shows signs of weakening. Recent demand strength is interpreted as a temporary surge from front-loaded orders ahead of anticipated tariffs, which now seem likely to normalize.
Of particular importance to the broader US economy is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which represents about 80% of GDP through the services sector. Contrary to economists’ expectations for a rebound, the index fell to its lowest point since July 2024, indicating mild contraction. The combined weakness in both manufacturing and services PMIs suggests economic data is underperforming relative to Wall Street forecasts and may be entering a contraction phase, potentially marking the start of a broader downtrend.
From a macro perspective, oil prices and the US dollar are key indicators to watch. A decline in oil prices could signal widespread economic weakness, while sustained softness in the dollar might set the stage for future interest rate cuts. However, with bond yields remaining stable, markets may need to adjust to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current stance longer than anticipated. Concerns persist that tariff-related inflationary pressures could prevent premature policy easing.
Previously, Matrixport indicated that a Bitcoin price above $84,500 would confirm a bullish trend, and recent recommendations urged profit-taking ahead of expected summer volatility. Despite the recent pullback, the trend model remains bullish for the time being, with a bearish shift only expected if Bitcoin falls below $96,719—a threshold still intact but increasingly threatened. Given the weakening momentum, locking in profits was considered prudent.
Currently, an additional risk factor is the potential deterioration of economic data caused by tariff policies, which could increase market uncertainty and investor caution. Early signs of weakening data suggest the possibility of a turbulent economic period lasting several months. In such conditions, continued uninterrupted Bitcoin rallies seem unlikely, especially as the Federal Reserve appears hesitant to implement rate cuts while inflation expectations remain high.
Bitcoin Dips Following Public Dispute Between Donald Trump And Elon Musk
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,478, reflecting a decline of 1.14% over the past 24 hours. Its highest value during this period reached $105,915, while the lowest was $100,501, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The market capitalization currently stands at $2.05 trillion, down 1.12% within the same timeframe.
During the past 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced liquidations totaling $341.71 million, with approximately 90% of this volume attributed to long positions, based on data compiled by Coinglass.
The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price coincided with a public dispute between former US President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk. The disagreement arose after Musk criticized Trump’s signature tax and spending legislation, describing it as a “disgusting abomination,” which appeared to increase market volatility.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
